Questions?
Presentations often end with this slide.
This is not one of those presentations.
Questions!
Presenters will often try to give you answers.
I am not one of those presenters.
What is Data Science?
If you’re not using
data
is it really proper
science?
What is science?
*a quick recap
Hypothesis
Prediction
Experiment
Analysis
Everybody in this audience now does.
Anyone I ask here will know.
"Can you tell me how science works?"
[insert results here]
Was this proper science?
Of course not!
But why?
Was science the problem,
or was I doing it wrong?
Science is easy;
good science
is very difficult.
This is not a problem of
scale.
randomized
controlled
experiments
the gold standard for empirical science
A|B
testing
We even find them where there are none to be found.
But it is no panacea.
The more we look, the more we see.
Some emerge from the way data is analysed.
Why sailors are more likely to drown whilst wearing a life-jacket than without.
Week 1: Cautious beginnings.
Base variant 99% - Treatment 1%.
49.500 / 990.000
550 / 10.000
Week 2: Ramp up the new thing!
Base variant 50% - Treatment 50%.
69.500 / 1.490.000
22.550 / 510.000
Wait. Did that trend just reverse!?
Or are we holding it wrong?
Week 2: Excluding data week 1.
Global conversion trending downwards.
20.000 / 500.000
22.000 / 500.000
Green consistently beat red by 10%.
In the real world, you are unlikely to be that lucky.
Trends can disappear when groups are combined. There are always more groups.
(Sailors are more likely to wear life-jackets in bad weather.)- Prediction.
- ???????
- PROFIT!
Supermarket Shopping Basket Decision Tree Predictor 2.0™
- ???????
- ???????
- ???????
Profit does not automatically follow from knowing what lies ahead.
Business specific domain knowledge is not a luxury. Focus on the money.
@bigdataborat
The four P's of Data Science.
p & P(A) presentation and profit